Ocean Market Update: Network Changes and a Softer Start Ahead
The ocean freight market is entering a period of recalibration as carriers refine their networks and shippers adjust to slower demand. Based on the latest industry report, ARL outlines the key developments shaping the Transpacific trade and the broader market outlook as we head toward the end of 2025 and into early 2026.
Expanded Transpacific Cooperation on the U.S. West Coast
Ocean Network Express (ONE) and Wan Hai Lines (WHL) are strengthening their partnership with the launch of a second jointly operated Transpacific service following the Premier Alliance’s East–West network restructuring. The new loop will connect Qingdao, Ningbo, Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, and return to Qingdao under a vessel-sharing agreement.
The service is scheduled to begin in early Q2 next year and will deploy five vessels in total, with ONE contributing three and WHL two. Capacity will remain flexible, ranging from approximately 3,000 to 16,000 TEU depending on market demand. HMM and Yang Ming will also participate as slot charterers, expanding access to the service.
This new loop builds on the carriers’ existing AP1/PS7 cooperation. From April, the westbound call at Shekou will be removed to align with the launch of the new service and the revised Premier Alliance network. The adjustment reflects carriers’ efforts to optimize coverage while managing capacity in a softer demand environment.
Continued Caution Around Red Sea Transits
Hapag-Lloyd has confirmed it will not resume Suez Canal transits for its India–U.S. East Coast service following customer feedback. Shippers have expressed concerns around reliability, risk exposure, and potential disruption, leading carriers to prioritize stability over shorter transit times.
Market Conditions
Demand is softening into year-end and early 2026, particularly on Asia–U.S. routes, as inventories remain elevated and restocking remains cautious. U.S. container imports declined by approximately 8 percent year-on-year in November 2025, signaling a weak start to 2026. Asia–Europe demand is relatively steadier, though still under pressure.
Freight Rates
Spot freight rates continue to trend lower across major lanes due to excess capacity. While carriers have announced General Rate Increases for late 2025 and early 2026, these are unlikely to fully hold without more aggressive capacity management. Asia–Europe rates are holding slightly firmer than Transpacific lanes, supported by congestion and tighter effective capacity.
Capacity and Operations
Seasonal blank sailings are increasing around late December and early January as carriers attempt to protect utilization. Overall capacity remains ample, with fewer winter sailings cancelled compared to previous downturns. Congestion at major European hubs and transshipment ports such as Singapore is absorbing some capacity and helping to limit further rate declines.
Key Factors to Watch
Oversupply risk is expected to persist into 2026 due to ongoing large vessel deliveries. Policy and cost developments, including EU ETS-related surcharges and U.S. port fees expected from October 2025, add further uncertainty. A gradual normalization of Red Sea routes could also reintroduce capacity and place additional pressure on rates.
Staying Ahead with ARL
The current ocean freight environment presents opportunities through favorable spot rates, but also challenges around schedule reliability and capacity shifts. Early planning remains essential for time-sensitive cargo, while flexibility in routing and contracts is increasingly important.
ARL continues to monitor market developments closely and work with customers to navigate ongoing volatility. We invite you to connect with the ARL team to discuss how these trends may impact your supply chain and explore tailored strategies to support your ocean freight needs.